NRL Expert Tips The NRL Season is drawing nearer, and with it, comes a slew of NRL Markets, which means it's time to get on the punt! Check out our NRL Expert Tips below! NRL Expert Tips - Number 1 2021 NRL Grand Final Winner - Penrith Panthe...
The NRL Grand Final always plays out in Sydney at ANZ Stadium, and has been the game’s home, since inception in 1999. To determine the two NRL Grand Final Teams, the NRL Finals are first played out over a three week period, which eventually leads to the clash. These finals series, and Grand Final, attract more punting than any other game of the season.
As well as punting on the NRL Grand Final, Futures betting also let you punt on outcomes over the entire season. These Futures Markets include Top Try scorer, Team to Make the Grand Final, the Top 8, Bottom 8, and number of season wins.
This article will help you feel confident enough to determine who will win the NRL Premiership, before the start of the season! You’ll then be able to have a punt and gain some juicy value.
In order to determine who will win the NRL Grand Final for 2021, there’s definitely a few things to take into account. Firstly, we’ll start with last year’s winner, and the score.
2020 NRL GRAND FINAL RESULTS
Penrith Panthers (20) v Melbourne Storm (26)
Since the inception of the NRL competition as it currently is, the Melbourne Storm have actually won more Grand Finals than any other club – however, they’re not favourites, and actually have the third-lowest odds for the 2021 NRL Grand Final.
Of their six Premiership wins, only four make it on the official record – 1999, 2012, 2017, and 2020. Their 2007 and 2009 Premiership Victories were stripped due to salary breaches.
In this sense, The Sydney Roosters actually hold an equal official NRL Grand Final Wining Record since 1998, with four wins in 2002, 2013, 2018 and 2019. Their NRL Premiership odds are sitting at a strong $6.00 on Sportsbet, just under Melbourne Storm at $6.50.
Other multiple NRL Grand Final Winners are the Brisbane Broncos, 1998, 2000 and 2006; and the Manly Sea Eagles, 2008 and 2011. After a pretty dismal season by both sides in 2020, the Broncos’ odds sit at $34, and the Sea Eagles at $15.
Alright. To work out who is going to win the NRL Grand Final, you need to look at a number of differing statistics and determining factors which will alter the outcome of the match.
Firstly, look at injury lists, free agency, trade rumours, and trades themselves, previous wins, and form guide.
These indicators are the top markers of who will win, or make the NRL Grand Final. Below is a table of previous winners, and the score. This will be the first statistic which will determine the NRL Grand Final Winner.
|2020||MELBOURNE STORM||PENRITH PANTHERS||26-20|
|2019||SYDNEY ROOSTERS||CANBERRA RAIDERS||14-8|
|2018||SYDNEY ROOSTERS||MELBOURNE STORM||21-6|
|2017||MELBOURNE STORM||NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS||34-6|
|2016||CRONULLA SHARKS||MELBOURNE STORM||14-12|
|2015||NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS||BRISBANE BRONCOS||17-16|
|2014||SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS||CANTERBURY BULLDOGS||30-6|
|2013||SYDNEY ROOSTERS||MANLY SEA EAGLES||26-18|
|2012||MELBOURNE STORM||CANTERBURY BULLDOGS||14-4|
|2011||MANLY SEA EAGLES||NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS||24-10|
|2010||ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS||SYDNEY ROOSTERS||32-8|
|2009||MELBOURNE STORM*||PARRAMATTA EELS||23-16|
|2008||MANLY SEA EAGLES||MELBOURNE STORM||40-0|
|2007||MELBOURNE STORM*||MANLY SEA EAGLES||34-8|
|2006||BRISBANE BRONCOS||MELBOURNE STORM||15-8|
|2005||WEST TIGERS||NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS||30-16|
This is probably the strongest factor which determines the NRL Grand Final Winner. After leading 26-0 with less than 30 minutes remaining, all eyes were on the Panthers – what were they doing? How had they not even scored 1 try? They were meant to be the favourites!
There was outrage. But suddenly, something spurred, and Melbourne were just able to hold on after a spirited fightback from Penrith to prevail 26-20 in the 2020 NRL Grand Final.
Betting on the 2021 NRLL Premiership is now open and Penrith Panthers are $4.50 favourites to go one better next season.
Looking at the odds side of things – once the Grand Finalists were confirmed the Storm were well backed favourites from odds at short as $1.75 – $1.65, before starting this season’s premiership decider at $1.68.
Before Melbourne’s fourth, or sixth, if you may, Grand Final victory, the biggest punts on Melbourne to win the season’s title were $20,000 at $4 on August 31, and $20,000 at $3.25 on October 3rd.
One Punter also placed a $25,000 bet at $1.75 for a $43,7750 collect at half time, and another got some pretty minor odds, placing $50,000 on the Storm at $1.50 for a $2500 profit.
Another punter had a huge collection of $65,000 from their $5000 punt at $13 odds, placed on September 21 for Richmond to win the 2020 AFL Premiership and Melbourne to win the 2020 NRL Premiership.
$5.00 – Penrith Panthers
$6.50 – South Sydney Rabbitohs
$6.00 – Sydney Roosters
$7.50 – Melbourne Storm
$10.00 – Canberra Raiders
$13 – Parramatta Eels
$15 – Manly Sea Eagles
$17 – Newcastle Knights
$19 – Gold Coast Titans
$21 – North Queensland Cowboys
$23 – Cronulla Sharks, NZ Warriors
$29 – Wests Tigers
$41 – St George Illawarra
$51 – Brisbane Broncos
$67 – Canterbury Bulldogs
While it’s all well and good to check out some cheeky NRL Premiership odds, and have a gander at the futures markets, it’s also important to have the best knowledge and statistics at the ready – especially if you’re going to be punting a large stake.
Teams rise and fall every few years, and the 2021 season is definitely in for some significant changes, and hopefully a better and more even competition than 2020.
At the moment, the Panthers are looking like the strongest side in the competition. Though it will be business as usual for the side, captain Nathan Cleary seems readily determined to take home the side’s first ever NRL Grand Final Win.
The side are definitely competent enough – gritty, young and talented… and after almost taking it out last year, they’ll be out for blood. Watching their players in State of Origin, you can see the sheer talent amongst the Penrith outfit, and these odds are great value considering.
The Storm have some pretty sizeable odds, considering they’re last year’s Grand Final Winners. But, the early futures market represents the best value, especially considering one unlucky punter got them at $1.05 in 2020. But, with great value, comes great risk.
The Storm don’t have it in them to take out another NRL Grand Final in 2021. With the Harry Grant and Cameron Smith turmoil, the side look set to lose one of the best young players in the game – due to keeping 37-yyear-old Smith on board for one more year.
The famously ‘never injured’ hooker also did his knee, missing two games in the 2020 season, and if injured again, will definitely affect the Storm’s chances of a Premiership win. Don’t punt on this side, even though it’s tempting.
The Roosters are in with a strong chance for the 2021 NRL Grand Final Win. Their odds are beastly, as are their team. With James Tedesco to lead, and other Origin players, Daniel Tupou, Jake Friend and Angus Crichton, they look fully stacked and prepared to take out the win.
Equalling the Melbourne Storm in NRL Grand Final Victories – this team is looking primed for another victory, and it could be in 2021. Considering the juicy odds on this little number, a punt with an average-large stake could be worth it in the long run.
Also representing huge value are the South Sydney Rabbitohs, who came into fruition at the end of the year.
Although their beginning was, humble, to say the least, watching them smash the Sydney Roosters 60-8, and narrowly lose to the Melbourne Storm later in the season, this side are looking fit and firing coming into 2021.
They would definitely be worth a punt – and are one of the top 3 teams which represent the best value for the NRL Grand Final Win.
Ah, the Raiders. Almost sneaking in a Grand Final Victory in 2019. They actually represent some decent value, considering their form.
But they just don’t seem good enough to make it all the way.
While $10 does seem like the kind of odds to lure you in; they’ll instead just get you hook, line and sinker. If you’re really keen to have a punt on the Raiders, instead of betting on them to win the NRL Grand Final in Futures Markets, place a stake on them making the 8. It’s a guaranteed win.
The Eels are so, so good on paper – so it always seems slightly astounding when they just can’t hold it together on field. $13 for a team that made last year’s Top 4 seems like pretty decent value, right?
The Eels will struggle to make the Top 4 in 2021, let alone the Grand Final, keep your money in your pockets for this one.
Now that we’ve run through the potential winners, there’s also the other side of the scale – the losers. Unfortunately for the teams not listed above, they won’t make the cut in terms of the NRL Grand Final.
With odds ranging up to $67, it can seem pretty tempting at times to place a low stake punt, on a high odds market… but the fact of the matter is, you’ll just end up losing your cash.
These sides are mostly yet to win an NRL Grand Final, and the ones that have, such as the Sea Eagles and Cronulla Sharks; are now sitting in the middle of the pack. The Broncos, at the bottom. If you want to have a cheeky punt on these three teams, I’d suggest looking at the Top 8 and Bottom 8 Futures Markets.
The Sea Eagles would represent huge value to make the 8 in 2021, and it would be an entirely more plausible bet than winning the Grand Final.
Look, the reason the odds are as high as they are currently, is due to the fact that you can’t determine a lot about a team until you’ve seen them actually play. This is why odds fluctuate constantly throughout the season – it’s entirely performance-based.
If you want to punt on the NRL Grand Final Futures Markets now, you’re going to have to do it by looking at form from last season, the trade period, and draft prospects. Otherwise, you can wait a few rounds into the 2021 season to determine your winner.
The odds may be lower by then, but they’re still worth it if you place a higher stake in the first few rounds. The odds may even be higher, if there’s a team, like the Rabbitohs, that are a slow burner. You’ll also want to wait for the roster to come out if you want to use any of the tips below, but if you’re looking to get juicy odds just before the season’s start – check out some determining factors below.
A team’s overall record against the other side is obviously handy in determining who will win the NRL Grand Final.
If you look at the roster, you can determine the head-to-head statistics of each team, and where they’ll end up finishing on the ladder. This also depends on how many times each team plays each other, and is extraordinarily useful in futures betting.
There are some examples of absolute domination like the Sea Eagles, who have won 82 of the 1377 games played against the Eels.
Look at how many times the team will be playing at home, and who they will be competing against there. If they have a fair few matches at home, and are facing some stiffer teams there, there’s a strong chance they could worm their way up the ladder.
Definitely take this into account when looking at NRL Grand Final Futures betting.
Obviously, you need to have seen a few rounds of NRL to determine who is going to be at the top of the ladder, and who is going to be at the bottom.
If you want more of a safe punt on the NRL Grand Final – wait it out a few rounds, and jump on a winner at some slightly lower odds.
You could also pick up some great value here, because, remember, teams at the beginning of the season look very different to teams at the end.
The Melbourne Storm finished 201 with 633 points scored, 336 conceded, and a staggering differential of 297.
These statistics are absolutely insane and are vital in determining the NRL Grand Final winner. Unsurprisingly, they finished this year minor premiers, and premiers.
It’s always a great idea to check out a team’s performance at both ends of the park before making your picks. A big positive differential generally indicates a team in hot form.
Obviously, you can’t tell any recent form if there haven’t been any games yet – but 2020 is a strong indicator of how teams are going to go, heading into the next season.
While the NRL is a close-run competition, and teams always seem to find a way to bounce back, punting on a team on the back of 20-odd losses, like the Broncos in 2020, is probably not going to be that fun for the wallet.
Although there haven’t been any 2021 matches actually played yet, you can still garner a rough indication of how a team has been travelling based on their 2020 form.
But as per usual, looks can be deceiving, take the Eels for example, a 2020 winning streak and a Top 4 position makes them look like a great chance for the 2021 NRL Grand Final victory, but they got beaten by teams at the bottom of the pile, and they aren’t in with a shot at the W anytime soon.
Obviously, the players make the team. So looking at draft picks and trades; plus the line-up, is the most important piece of the puzzle.
Look at the top try scorers of 2020, look at the medal winners, the origin players, the All-Stars team. These will all give you a great indication of how a team will go in 2021 – and if they’re a shot for the NRL Grand Final.